Dave Campbell – Dundalk Tips Friday 12th March

16:55 Ecclesiastical 3/1 (Bog) Bet365
If Arcanears arrives fit and ready to roll after a break of 133 days he could prove a tough nut to crack but not willing to take fitness on trust the safer option looks to be this T G McCourt trained 4 year old gelding who won by a neck over CD last time out off 79 beating Hodd’s Girl by 0.50L. The handicapper has been somewhat harsh raising him to 88 for this but with so many question marks with the rest of the field he is worth chancing in this very tricky hard to call opener. Personally I would just watch and not bet in the race at all.

17:25 Oh Say 2/1 (Bog) Bet365
Awful race with a capital AWFUL and not one to really get involved with, the sole winner in the race is consistent enough but the level of form is poor, the newcomers never managed to see the racecourse at two and the fact they have ALL been gelded is an indication of limited ability, however that being said if a newcomer was going to win this then the one that catches the eye is the G M Lyon’s trained Nakoa who would not need to be special to win. The safest option is the J Harrington trained 3 year old colt Oh Say who won’t get many better opportunities than this to shed the maiden tag, but again not a race to get too involved in!

18:00 Monzoon 20/1 E/W William Hill (Paying 4 Places)
This really is like looking for a needle in a haystack and unlike the first race I am going to take fitness on trust and take a punt in the hope that this Ross O’Sullivan trained 4 year old gelding is ready to roll. Our selection is coming from a break of 135 days so not one to throw the mortgage at and is dropping down to 6F today a distance not ran at since well down the field over this course on debut. However looking through his form ran a cracker over 7F last Oct when just touched off by Prince Of Shanghai. Won his maiden over a mile here so clearly likes the track but if can match the aforementioned 7F run today could go well at what we hope will be decent odds?

18:30 Pure Nature 9/4 (Bog) Bet365
Not a lover of small fields when it comes to horse racing as often they are not truly run affairs and become tactical but by form alone I cannot see past our selection Pure Nature. This A McGuinness trained 4 year old filly is another coming from a break, in her case 98 days. She is the clear pick on speed ratings but her trainers form is somewhat a concern having saddled no winner from the last 12 horses he has sent out. Top weighted Grandmaster Flash won easily over 2 miles here last time out and is a previous winner over today’s course and distance but falls way short on our selections race times but having that racecourse fitness could prove telling? Purely on form alone the selection has to be Pure Nature!

19:00 Persian Lion 5/1 E/W (Bog) Bet365
This has to be one of the worst Dundalk cards I have seen for a while and this big field Apprentice handicap is a testament to that fact. However there is a stand out in this and if ridden by a pro I would be having a good bet on this Katy Brown trained 6 year old gelding who ran a cracker over 12F here 7 days ago when a 0.50L 3rd of 14 to Fallen Forest. The drop down to 10 1/2F today is not a concern and as long as this race has not come too soon should hold major claims. Again though I cannot emphasise enough these are dangerous races to be betting heavy in.

19:30 Hamwood Flier 7/2 (Bog) Bet365
Yet another trappy looking Dundalk race this time in the form of a Maiden and one newcomer looks a likely type on paper and that is the Kingman filly Maar, there are several in the field that have had the one run and we all know horses can improve Lbs for an initial outing so again caution is advised for betting purposes. Of those that have ran the one that makes most appeal is this Jessica Harrington trained 3 year old filly who ran a solid enough race on debut when 4th of 14 just over 2L behind the winner Thrumps Dream. She will be stepping down in trip to 7F today which looks the right call and should prove hard to keep out of the frame?

20:00 Harry’s Bar 3/1 (Bog) Bet365
If this was a turf race I would be all over the top horse even allowing for the 160 days break but the fact he was beaten on his sole start on an artificial surface is enough to put me off Current Option which then should leave a match between our selection and San Andreas and there should be very little between them tonight. I just feel out of the two the A McGuinness trained 6 year old gelding has the better all round form on this type of surface?

20:30 Miracles In May NAP 15/2 E/W Hills (Paying 4 Places)
Although the form book may say 7th of 14 last time out this M A Cahill trained 6 year old gelding was only beaten 2.5L over CD off a mark of 65 and was given too much to do. The handicapper has seen fit to drop him to 63 today which makes him look a very attractive proposition indeed. Our selection won over CD in Jan 2020 off 61 before being runner up in his next race again over CD off 68 in times that this field would be hard to touch. Will be disappointed if not making the frame despite top weight and this represents with luck in running a great opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure.

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